PREVIEW: Real Madrid vs. Arsenal – prediction, team news, lineups

The stage is set for a titanic showdown at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid as the reigning Champions League titleholders, Real Madrid, prepare to host Arsenal in the second leg of their electrifying quarter-final clash. For Carlo Ancelotti’s men, the equation is stark and demanding: it is remontada or bust. Following a humbling 3-0 defeat at the Emirates Stadium in the first leg, Los Blancos face the daunting task of overturning a significant deficit against a confident and well-organized Arsenal side.

The first leg at the Emirates witnessed a performance of sheer dominance from Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. The Gunners, playing with an intensity and tactical discipline that Real Madrid struggled to cope with, carved out a commanding three-goal lead, leaving the Spanish giants reeling and facing their biggest European challenge of the season. The atmosphere in North London that night was nothing short of electric as Arsenal fans celebrated a memorable victory.

Now, the narrative shifts to the hallowed turf of the Bernabeu, a stadium synonymous with legendary comebacks and dramatic European nights. Real Madrid, the record 15-time winners of the European Cup, will be banking on the famed “Bernabeu factor” to inspire a sensational turnaround against an Arsenal side that has proven to be a formidable opponent throughout this Champions League campaign.

The weight of history and expectation rests heavily on the shoulders of Carlo Ancelotti and his Real Madrid squad. To keep their dream of securing a sweet sixteenth European crown alive, they must conjure up one of the most remarkable comebacks in the club’s illustrious history. The three-goal deficit presents a mountain to climb, but if any team in Europe possesses the resilience and pedigree to achieve such a feat, it is undoubtedly Real Madrid.

As the anticipation builds for this crucial encounter, several intriguing storylines are emerging. One focal point is Real Madrid’s star forward, Kylian Mbappe, who is still patiently awaiting his first-ever goal from a direct free kick in the famous white jersey. While Mbappe’s talent from open play is undeniable, his set-piece prowess is something that Real Madrid fans are eager to witness.

Interestingly, the first leg at the Emirates saw Arsenal’s own attacking maestro, Declan Rice, who cost the Gunners a club-record £105 million, offer the World Cup winner a masterclass in set-piece execution. Rice stunned the Bernabeu legend Roberto Carlos, who was in attendance, by scoring two unbelievable dead-ball strikes within the space of just twelve mesmerizing minutes.

Rice’s first goal was a beautifully bent effort that curled perfectly around the Real Madrid wall and nestled into the net, leaving goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois with no chance. His second was equally exquisite, a postage-stamp finish that showcased his technique and composure from dead-ball situations. These goals not only put Arsenal in a commanding position but also served as a reminder of Rice’s multifaceted talent.

Adding to Real Madrid’s woes in the first leg, Mikel Merino also got his name on the scoresheet with a brilliant first-time finish, further compounding the Spanish giants’ misery. The euphoric scenes at the Emirates Stadium that night will be etched in the memory of Arsenal supporters for years to come, marking arguably the most famous night in the stadium’s history.

For Real Madrid, the 3-0 defeat in North London represented a significant setback. It was only the fifth time in their long and storied history that they had lost the first leg of a Champions League or European Cup knockout tie by three or more goals. The historical precedent is not encouraging for Los Blancos, as they have been eliminated on four of those previous five occasions.

However, there is a glimmer of hope for Real Madrid. The one outlier in that unfavorable statistic came against an English side, Derby County, in the 1975-76 UEFA Cup. Real Madrid suffered a 4-1 defeat in the first leg of the last 16 tie but managed to pull off an incredible 5-1 turnaround in the second leg at the Bernabeu, showcasing their ability to produce remarkable comebacks.

As Manchester City and Chelsea, two other prominent English clubs, can attest to, Champions League nights at the Bernabeu are rarely a foregone conclusion. While the 5-1 victory over Derby County remains a standout example, it is one of only two occasions where Real Madrid has beaten an English side by at least four goals in the competition. The other instance was a 4-0 quarter-final thrashing of Tottenham Hotspur back in 2011.

Real Madrid’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent. In their weekend La Liga battle against Alaves, they could only manage a narrow 1-0 victory, with Eduardo Camavinga scoring the decisive goal before Kylian Mbappe’s late sending-off. Interestingly, Real Madrid has a strong home scoring record in the Champions League, having not failed to score at the Bernabeu in the competition since December 2018, when they lost to CSKA Moscow.

On the flip side, Real Madrid has shown a degree of vulnerability defensively in their recent European home fixtures. They have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 10 Champions League contests at the Bernabeu. This statistic will be music to the ears of an Arsenal side that may need to rely on more than just their formidable defense to see out the quarter-final tie.

Despite missing key attacking players like Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, as well as influential defender Gabriel Magalhaes, Arsenal managed to dismantle Real Madrid in the first leg at the Emirates. This victory highlighted the depth and quality within Mikel Arteta’s squad, and should they progress to the semi-finals, they would be more than worthy participants, reaching that stage for only the third time in their history, with their last appearance dating back to 2009.

Perhaps Arsenal’s only regret from the first leg was that they did not build an even more commanding lead. They registered an impressive 11 shots on target against Real Madrid, the joint-most of any team against the Spanish giants in a Champions League knockout game. However, they seemed to revert to some wasteful habits in their weekend Premier League fixture.

In a rotated side, Arsenal were held to a 1-1 draw in a London derby against Brentford. This result allowed Liverpool to close the gap at the top of the Premier League table, and Arsenal’s title chances could even be mathematically over this weekend if they suffer a surprise defeat against Ipswich Town.

Nevertheless, the home stalemate against Brentford did extend Arsenal’s unbeaten run in all competitions to nine matches. The Gunners have also found the back of the net in each of their last eight contests, providing genuine hope that they can replicate their attacking prowess in the intimidating atmosphere of the Bernabeu.

It has been 19 years since a trademark Thierry Henry solo run propelled Arsenal to a memorable 1-0 victory at the Bernabeu in 2006. The North London giants have an impressive record against Real Madrid in competitive matches, having never lost to them. While they can afford to see that sequence snapped and still progress to the semi-finals, they will undoubtedly be aiming to secure another positive result on Spanish soil.

Real Madrid’s Champions League form leading up to this match has been strong, with a sequence of wins before the first-leg defeat. Their form across all competitions has been more mixed, including wins, draws, and losses in recent weeks.

Arsenal’s Champions League form has been equally impressive, with a string of victories and a draw leading up to this crucial second leg. Their form across all competitions shows a similar pattern of positive results, including wins and draws.

In terms of team news for Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappe’s sending-off in La Liga will have no impact on his European participation. However, the weekend’s match-winner, Eduardo Camavinga, will be suspended for Wednesday’s clash after being sent off in the first leg for a second bookable offense. He joins long-term absentees Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal on the sidelines. Ferland Mendy and Andriy Lunin are also major doubts due to injuries. Aurelien Tchouameni is available again after suspension and is likely to replace Camavinga. Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior should be fresh after starting on the bench against Alaves.

For Arsenal, the major concern is the fitness of Jorginho and Thomas Partey, who both sustained knocks in the second half of the draw against Brentford. Ben White also missed the Brentford game due to a training injury. Jurrien Timber is expected to return to the starting XI. Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Mikel Merino are all likely to return to the lineup after being rested against Brentford. Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhaes, Kai Havertz, and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain sidelined.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Alaba; Tchouameni, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr; Mbappe.

Arsenal possible starting lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli.

We predict a Real Madrid victory by a scoreline of 2-1, but with Arsenal progressing to the semi-finals with a 4-2 aggregate win.

If Arsenal can maintain their defensive solidity in the opening stages of the match, particularly in the first ten minutes when the Bernabeu crowd will be at its most vociferous, they will significantly increase their chances of success. While Real Madrid will undoubtedly come out with attacking intent, Arsenal’s defense has proven to be stingy enough to avoid conceding the four goals that Real Madrid would require to win in normal or extra time. Moreover, Real Madrid has shown vulnerabilities at the back, and one moment of brilliance from an Arsenal attacker could be enough to calm any nerves and secure their passage to the semi-finals, where Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa await.