Brest – Real (0-3): Carlo Ancelotti’s Analysis Raises Concerns Ahead of the Play-offs

Real Madrid secured a convincing 3-0 victory against Brest in their final group-stage match of the Champions League, but the result has not entirely dispelled concerns ahead of the play-offs. Carlo Ancelotti’s post-match analysis was filled with optimism, but many observers remain skeptical about the team’s overall performance.

Despite already qualifying for the next phase, Madrid had an additional incentive to secure a spot in the Top 8, which would have granted them direct passage to the Round of 16. However, despite their dominant scoreline, the Spanish giants now face the possibility of a difficult play-off tie against either Celtic or Manchester City in February.

At the Roudourou, Rodrygo Goes stole the show with an impressive performance, further cementing his importance to the team’s attacking setup. Yet, while the Brazilian’s brilliance helped secure the win, Madrid’s overall display left much to be desired. Ancelotti, however, dismissed any concerns, choosing to focus on the positives of the performance rather than the underlying struggles that could prove costly in the knockout rounds.

Ancelotti’s Worrying Assessment

Many expected the Italian coach to acknowledge some of the issues that plagued Madrid throughout the match. Brest, despite being an inferior side on paper, managed to cause significant trouble for Los Blancos. They registered more corners (4 vs 3), took more shots (23 vs 14), and committed fewer fouls, showing that they were far from being completely outplayed. Yet, Ancelotti remained firm in his belief that Madrid had full control of the game.

“It was a good match. Today, we played well, and we were solid and serious. We are happy and pleased. It’s a shame we didn’t wake up earlier in the competition. We are happy to be at this level now,” Ancelotti said. His words suggest that Madrid have only recently found their rhythm in the tournament, but such a late resurgence could prove risky against stronger opposition.

While some may argue that the scoreline flatters Madrid, Ancelotti disagreed. “We were good defensively and offensively. We are in a good moment and have good feelings. We want to keep going this way. Today, we played well—there is no doubt about it,” he insisted. However, statistics and the eye test tell a different story, with Brest exposing several weaknesses that could be exploited by elite teams in the next round.

Can Madrid Go Far With This Form?

With the play-offs now set, Madrid’s prospects in the competition remain uncertain. They have already suffered defeats against Lille, AC Milan, and Liverpool in the group stage, raising questions about their ability to handle tougher opponents. Now, they are set to battle either Celtic Glasgow or Manchester City—two teams with vastly different styles but both capable of causing Madrid serious problems.

In attack, Madrid have been impressive, with Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé leading the charge. The return of Vinícius Júnior from suspension will further bolster their firepower, but defensive issues continue to overshadow their attacking brilliance. Against Brest, it took six crucial saves from Thibaut Courtois to preserve a clean sheet. Additionally, the French side had a goal disallowed for offside—an indication that Madrid’s backline remains vulnerable.

With Ancelotti seemingly content with the team’s performance, the worry is that Madrid may not be fully prepared for what awaits them in the play-offs. Against teams like Manchester City, who thrive on exposing defensive weaknesses, a similar display could spell disaster for Los Blancos.

Ancelotti’s Preference for the Play-off Draw

The Madrid boss was asked about his preferred opponent for the upcoming round, and he made no secret of his thoughts. “We have to wait for the draw. If it’s City, it will be tough for both teams, but we must wait for the draw. City have a better chance of winning the Champions League than Celtic due to their structure and quality. We don’t like playing against them, but if we have to, we will, just as we have done in previous years.”

His comments suggest a clear preference for facing Celtic, a team Madrid would be expected to handle more comfortably. Facing Pep Guardiola’s City, on the other hand, would present a daunting challenge, given their history of dominating possession and exploiting defensive frailties.

Defensive Concerns Persist

The biggest issue Madrid must address before the play-offs is their defensive vulnerability. The absence of a stable backline has been a recurring theme this season, and against Brest, it was once again evident. While Courtois’ heroics bailed them out, relying on individual brilliance from the goalkeeper is not a sustainable strategy in the latter stages of the tournament.

With Éder Militão still recovering from injury, Madrid have been forced to rotate between Antonio Rüdiger, David Alaba, and Nacho in central defense. None of the combinations have offered complete stability, leaving Madrid susceptible to fast-paced attacks—something City, in particular, could exploit ruthlessly.

Midfield Strength: Madrid’s Saving Grace?

One area where Madrid can take confidence is their midfield. The presence of Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, and Federico Valverde gives them an energetic and technically gifted core capable of controlling games. However, the midfield’s defensive contribution will need to improve, especially in transitions, where Madrid have often been caught off guard.

If Ancelotti can find the right balance in midfield to shield the defense effectively, Madrid’s chances of progression will improve significantly. Otherwise, the team risks being overrun by more aggressive and tactically disciplined sides.

A Make-or-Break Play-off Round

Madrid’s journey in this year’s Champions League will largely depend on how they handle the upcoming play-off tie. A win against Celtic would reinforce their status as contenders, but a clash with City could expose their flaws. Ancelotti’s optimism is commendable, but if the same defensive lapses persist, Madrid could find themselves exiting the competition earlier than expected.

All eyes are now on Friday’s draw. Will Madrid get the favorable opponent they hope for, or will they be forced into another high-stakes battle against one of Europe’s best? Either way, Ancelotti’s men must improve if they want to go deep into the tournament.